FORRESTER blog repost Social Network Analysis: Going to Become Too Ubiquitous for Its Own Good

Social Network Analysis: Going to Become Too Ubiquitous for Its Own Good

By James Kobielus

Social networks are the future of online life, whether we like it or not. Before the end of the coming decade, relationships with everyone –including family, friends, colleagues, employers, merchants, suppliers, and government agencies—will hinge on your access to these parties, and theirs to you, through online communities of all shapes and sizes.

Social networks are becoming much more pervasive than today’s mass-market communities—such as Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn—would lead you to believe. Before long, many will be embedded in the full range of business and personal applications. In ten years’ time, today’s social networks will have evolved into a powerful, seamless worldwide infrastructure for collaboration, sharing, interaction, and transactions. Many will be integral features of the mobile, broadband, and streaming media services that shape business and consumer life. Many will be secure, robust environments that span across federated public and private clouds.

From an enterprise perspective, social networks are the “buzz” that can spell the difference between success and failure in a reputation-driven online economy. Already, we see a strong interest in social network monitoring and marketing tools. Everybody wants to know whether, how, how often, and by whom they’re being mentioned in Twitter, Facebook, blogs, and the like. And everybody wants to influence those discussions in their favor and extract maximum revenue potential from sales to people who use those media. Anybody who has ever tweeted the name of a large company and been immediately greeted by an automated “we’re following you” message from that same firm knows the power—and potential nuisance factor—of this new medium.

Clearly, social networks are highly monetizable. At heart, they are continuously refreshing streams of customer-generated intelligence on requirements, needs, sentiments, and experiences. As this new way of doing business gains traction, companies will focus the full power of advanced analytics on social networks, especially those where customers live. Forrester sees growing enterprise adoption of social network analysis, an emerging discipline of predictive analytics that mines behavioral, attititudinal, and other affinities among individuals. Though it can be applied to a broad range of scientific and other topics that involve no online interactions, social network analysis thrives on the deepening streams of information—structured and unstructured, user-generated and automated—that emanate from Facebook, Twitter, and other new Web 2.0 communities.

What exactly is social network analysis? Essentially, it involves discovering, mapping, and measuring relationships among people, groups, companies, and any other entities—including products, online content, and personal computers—with which they interact. It leverages such key data mining capabilities as segmentation, clustering, and regression to identify, for example, who are the leaders, followers, influencers, and outliers in social groupings. If viewed in the time dimension, social network analysis can reveal the cultural dynamics that spell the difference between a successful marketing campaign and a flop, or that drive one group of customers to renew their contracts and others to jump ship.

It doesn’t take much stretch of the imagination to see where this all might lead. As customers reveal candid thoughts in real time via Twitter and other social networks, enterprises can conceivably cut back on structured surveys, focus groups, and other traditional approaches to gauging demand. In their place, companies can simply and automatically “listen” to social networks through complex event processing; process unstructured text streams through content analytics; aggregate all intelligence into massive analytical data marts; and drive sales, marketing, and customer service through inline social network analytics models. The “killer app” for all this becomes the real-time “next best offer” your contact center makes from this intelligence, or the marketing campaign you re-arrange on the fly to save it from near-failure.

But there’s danger in this otherwise promising scenario. The problem is that social network analysis—automatic, real-time, effective--will become too popular. Enterprises will rely more and more on high-powered social-network-analysis models to divine market trends, segment the customer base, and tune their campaigns. As this approach gains adoption, companies will be tempted to pull back significantly from traditional outreach efforts—such as focus groups—that involve direct interaction with customers and other stakeholders.

It’s not that statistical models are inherently invalid. It’s just that they can become another layer of abstraction between you and your customers, preventing you from making personal connections with them and thereby securing their ongoing patronage and loyalty. Also, those models may crowd out the intuitional approaches you should use to gauge the cultural zeitgeist within which your business creates value.

To the extent that social network analysis encourages proliferation of superficial customer-segmentation categories—on the order of “Yuppie” and “Generation X”—it will invite backlash. One might refer to these sorts of magazine-ready segmentation labels as “statgeists,” meaning that they may have some grounding in statistical models of demographics and other metrics, but are little more than cutesy consultant-speak.

Beware of sexy statgeists. When you use these too-clever-by-half verbal concoctions, you gag a little, as do the real people to whom they ostensibly apply.

Aweekstweets November 23 to December 4 2009 dossemanas

TECH-AND-TECH-INDUSTRY TWEETS

RT @DataMiningTips: Mechanistician: Best Data Mining Algorithm http://bit.ly/82lIJb: JK--Best, schmest! Just give 'em options. about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

JK2—I tried to steer clear of this “what’s the best algorithm?” business in scoring my Forrester PA/DM Wave.

Where, when, and from whom exactly did this word "statgeist" originate? Here, now, me. about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

JK2—Expect a Forrester blog from me on this very topic, this very week, encompassing this and the following indented tweets:

Here's the thing about the statgeist: it's a figment of whatever stat model you use to characterize what you're observing. about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

Difference between zeitgeist and statgeist? Former is finger to prevailing cultural winds. Latter uses statistical models as the weathervane about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

Social network analysis + real-time social network content analytics: good way of gauging the zeitgeist: or the "statgeist" about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

Somebody should divine the predictive modeling technique used by Nostradamus. Stats or SWAGs? Regression or obsession? Algorithm or alchemy? about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

RT @Truviso: "unique user tracking & segmentation.. breakthrough in web analytics : JK--Yep, enable powerful social network analysis. about 5 hours ago from TweetDeck

RT @RonaldDamhof @jheizenb "New BI trend: bashing BI trends" JK--Oldest BI trend in the book. The new BI trend is inventing new BI trends. about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

JK2—Inventing new BI trends by inventing new ways to weave BI into our working lives, as evidenced by the following indented tweets:

"SAP readying potential Google Wave rival" (http://bit.ly/6QLITE): JK--Looks more like beefed-up BI collab in BusinessObjects. Cool. 1:53 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Taking MSFT briefing on PowerPivot. Herain Oberoi, Mike Tejedor & @donalddotfarmer. "Business insight in context of what u do day-to-day" 12:10 PM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

Tweets as key popularity indicators (KPIs of a different sort) in real-time collective intelligence (BI for social networking) environments? 12:48 PM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

"Microsoft: Black Screen of Death claims are flat-out false" (http://bit.ly/91zov7): JK--Do we really need color-coded screens of death? ;-) 1:50 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Sitting here trying to think of single thing Google developed (not acquired) that actually use regularly, other than search. Still thinkin' 1:48 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @Intelligentform: "decisioning ....Predictive Analytics ....why equate them?" JK--Not an equation. 8:41 PM Nov 27th from TweetDeck

@Intelligentform "Automated decisioning" JK--Term of art for inline predictive analytics. Many micro-decisions to burden human with. 2:29 PM Nov 26th from web in reply to Intelligentform

"IBM feels cozy on sidelines as Oracle-Sun deal ... in anti-trust purgatory" (http://bit.ly/75ZNON): JK--Cue up Soundgarden "Black Hole Sun" 8:28 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

"MSFT Windows 8 Coming In 2012" (http://bit.ly/5WRgT7): JK--MSFT into tedious slog thru OS rev numbers. No hopeful "Vista" or "Millennium." 8:22 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Cloud DW: how/whether to virtualize across and leverage all the legacy flotsam of myriad hardware, OS, DBMSs, etc and thereby scale out. 7:14 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

All DW vendors contemplating cloud. Less than 50% have commercial cloud offerings now. 90% will by year from now. But few mature till 2011 7:06 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Well, the analyst community consensus on Google Chrome OS is breathtaking. It'll be a smashing success. It'll also fail miserably. 6:18 AM Nov 23rd from TweetDeck

LIFE-OF-AN-ANALYST TWEETS

Looking forward to @bevelson BI SaaS Wave. I'm sure it will be good. Boris has an awesome list of vendors providing BI in cloud-like form. about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

Continuing to push back on people's well-meaning attempts to rebrand me down from "James" to "Jim." 7:42 AM Dec 3rd from TweetDeck

Always love when people tell me they enjoy my tweets. Not interested in how many "follow" me. Just interested in who I'm touching. 8:10 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Taking time off today. Time to do stuff around the house. So it doesn't feel like "off." But "off," none the less. 1:14 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

RT @aristippus303: "the Kenneth Tynan of analyst bloggers eh?" JK--Who's that? 7:00 AM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

Fundamentally, analyst's personal blog is centerpiece of their personal brand. How would corporations feel if compelled to kill their brand? 10:53 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

When I first started writing James Kobielus' Blog (http://bit.ly/5uuyTt) 5 yrs ago, I gave myself license to goof around. Hasn't hurt me. 10:43 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

It's more than just freedom to utter expletives. Stylistic freedom is key. Can't imagine "aweekstweet" as official biz-blog format. 10:41 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Anyway, back to topic of analysts with personal blogs. Free speech, personal viewpoints. Twitter too. Freedom to occasionally say "fuck" 10:33 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Love when folks finally meet me & vice versa. Shock of "that's him?" For the record, I'm shorter, older, balder, & more myopic than I appear 10:26 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Definitely love doing consulting. Especially when it's face to face on their turf. Working virtual gets old. Simply need to be among people. 10:22 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Did 3 straight biz days consulting to 3 very different IT vendors. Airline screwup kept today from being 4th . But will deliver next month. 10:20 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

RT @rwang0: "personal blogs being squelched by mgt in companies....1st amendment rights?" #socmedia: JK--Archaic concept: freedom of speech 10:01 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

"DC area analyst." What's that really mean? My customers and the vendors I cover are everywhere. It means DCA, IAD, or BWI: which is mine? 9:36 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Reading my own aweekstweets (why do I do that?) is self-revelation. I do indeed multiplex all those topics in my brain constantly. Weird! 9:18 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

An analyst-in-the-world must reserve the right to tweet, blog, or otherwise publish any analysis on any topic. If it's worth saying, say it. 9:20 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Facts, or corrections of same, are what should be presented to evaluator. Stray evaluative language shouldn't be thrown in. I filter it out. 10:05 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Also not useful to accuse the evaluator of bias 10:02 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Always best when vendors address only their own qualifications and not make gratuitous statements about the competition. 10:01 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Most vendors actually address criteria AS STATED. Makes evaluator's job all the easier. Following instructions in everybody's best interest 9:59 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Hey PA/DM Wave vendors: here's the definition I'm using for "strategy maps" (http://bit.ly/55hBJq). I didn't invent the concept. 6:40 AM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

Ah, yes, day-before-Thanksgiving of wall-to-wall vendor pushback on my PA/DM Wave. I'd love that cup of cheer now, Wed morn, but don't dare. 6:35 AM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

Fine-tooth-combing the vendor feedback to their scores in the Forrester PA/DM Wave...isolation (thru music) good way of focusing. 9:43 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Meager tech news volume for Monday morning. Everybody already got their pre-Thanksgiving announcements out there. Folks a-flyin home this wk 6:27 AM Nov 23rd from TweetDeck

Today's atypical day where I've kept the music off most of time. And I'm taking a break, go figure. Don't have headache. Just love the quiet 5:19 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

SHAMELESS-SELF-PROMOTION TWEETS

Wrapping up the Forrester PA/DM Wave. Will be published (I assume) early next month. about 4 hours ago from TweetDeck

Check out the @kickfire webinar with Forrester Analyst @jameskobielus - More Bang for your Data Warehousing Budget http://bit.ly/54GWsz about 9 hours ago from TweetDeck

Podcast: "BI Branches Out," 12-8-09, 2pm (est), @JeffreySchwartz , editor App Devel Trends & yrs truly (http://bit.ly/6votFt ). 7:09 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Webinar: Greenplum, @frankgillett & myself "Data Analytics & Cloud Computing: Convergence or Collision?" 12-15-09 (http://bit.ly/2cPRqv) 7:01 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

New blogpost: "Instrumenting Your Enterprise for Maximum Predictive Power (http://bit.ly/5OwMsy) 7:10 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

CONTINUING-TO-INDULGE-IN-SOCIAL-MEDIA-ARE-CHANGING-THE-VERY-FABRIC-OF-OUR-POSTMODERN-EXISTENCE-WAIT-A-SEC-WHY-AREN’T THESE IN TECH-TWEET? TWEETS

"Internet's Destruction of Critical Thinking" (http://bit.ly/8uDY9o): JK--No way. Lets us talk back to everything. That's critical thinking. 2:09 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @PublicityGuru: "Is Twitter the New Wire Service? http://bit.ly/4IpEXp" JK--Yes, indeed. That's my primary use of it, as tweet consumer. 1:33 PM Dec 1st from TweetDeck

All these Google Wave invites going out today must mean Google's either very confident it's primetime ready--or desperate for users. 5:17 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

A futzing-intensive Monday in cyberspace. Folks a-futzing with their new Google Wave, new TweetDeck version, new Kindle, new Windows 7, etc. 5:15 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

RT @swaynette: :Who do I know on Google Wave? How do I find you? I want to see what this thing does." JK--You know me. I'm also learning 5:13 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Great thing about Twitter for uninitiated, and hesistant, new user, is that it comes packed with content and community--enticements to tweet 5:01 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

TweetDeck browsing: perfect music-on-hold activity: can pick up or leave off anywhere, anytime: not concentration- or continuity-intensive 4:21 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Got invited to Google Wave today. Puttering around inside it. But still haven't figured out answer to key question: "why?" 1:16 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Google Wave just sits there inert and uninviting if it isn't delivered pre-populated with interactive, collaborative content (i.e., Waves). 4:59 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

RT @aristippus303: "Facebook...cheesy." JK--Yes, it is. But I do like the ability to share photos. And to aggregate my tweets and blogs. 8:47 PM Nov 27th from TweetDeck

Arguments on Twitter are very ping-pong. Give me whiplash jerking my neck back and forth to follow. Ball's invisible as hummingbird wings. 8:44 PM Nov 27th from TweetDeck

That was too bitty. This version hopefully is bitsy. Let's see. 9:12 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Going for the consistent photo across all my online personas. 9:06 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

"Forecasting the Demise of Social Media" (http://bit.ly/7BMqzG): JK--Inevitable backlash. Can see headlines: "First SOA, Now Social: DEAD!!" 3:09 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

"Turn Your Twitter Tweets Into Books!" (http://bit.ly/7EerCA): JK--As anybody slogging thru my aweekstweets knows, it's pure vanity project 7:26 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Oh, I have Plaxo. That's right, I have Plaxo. Explain to yourself again, Jim, why you have Plaxo. Well, I have Plaxo because.....Don't know. 11:08 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Oh, I see. Blogger.com doesn't like bullets. Wonder what it's stand is on the 2nd amendment. 2:00 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Raked remaining leaves this morning before the rain. Unfollowing the brain-dead tweet-pushers that have fluttered and cluttered my TweetDeck 4:30 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

MUSIC-CUZ-THAT’S-WHAT-I’M-WHISTLING-WHILE-I-WORK-IF-YOU-REALLY-MUST-KNOW TWEETS

RT @kexpplaylist: Santa Claus by The Sonics #KEXP: JK--60s Seattle rock band Xmas song recording that appropriates melody of "Farmer John" about 10 hours ago from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Killer Queen by Queen #KEXP: JK--This group mashed up an odd but distinctive blend of fruity and macho guitar-rock. about 11 hours ago from TweetDeck

RT @albumvsalbum "Beach Boys - "Pet Sounds" vs Beatles - "Rubber Soul"" JK--No. "Pet Sounds" v. Dylan "Blonde on Blonde." 1966 gems. 8:49 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Listening to "Caroline, No," from Beach Boys "Pet Sounds." At end, dogs are barking "pet sounds." Receding train sound is doppler shifting 8:04 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Castles Made Of Sand by The Jimi Hendrix Experience #KEXP: JK--From "Axis Bold as Love." At the time, 1967 felt dream-like 7:34 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: I Was Made For You by She & Him #KEXP: JK--Zooey Deschanel and M. Ward doing very cool early-60s-ish girl-groupy song 7:32 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

"Hailing the death cab for Cobol" (http://bit.ly/7IqCAZ): JK--Ben Gibbard, call your lawyer! 1:50 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Lesson No. 1 by Viva Voce #KEXP: JK--Great Seattle-Portland axis 2000s man-woman sotto-voce chill-groove indie group 8:58 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Doctor Robert by The Beatles #KEXP: JK--"Take a drink from his special cup, Dr. Robert." What was in it, John Lennon? 10:43 AM Dec 1st from TweetDeck

Finally got around to putting Carpenters greatest hits on my Zune. Already had Jefferson Airplane's. Both acts signed to RCA same day 1966 5:28 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Amazing: Music legend Smokey Robinson is following me on Twitter. All I had to do was tweet him. Sounds like Aladdin's Lamp: "Open sesame!" 6:32 AM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Fairytale of New York by The Pogues #KEXP: JK--Flat-out, one of the best Xmas songs ever. Ever. 10:44 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Dog Days Are Over by Florence and the Machine #KEXP: JK--Wow! Who is this singer? Sounds like the new Annie Lennox. 10:22 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: What Have You Done? by Naomi Shelton & Gospel Queens #KEXP: JK--Another great new Daptone release that feels vintage R&B! 9:36 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Listening to the best version anywhere of "God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen": Sarah McLachlan & Barenaked Ladies: Kid ye not: Joyeux Canuck Noel! 9:59 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Listening to Smokey Robinson and the Miracles "Going to a Go-Go." So totally swinging 60s, urbanity, bounce. Like Petula Clark "Downtown." 9:57 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Listening to Carpenters' version of Leon Russell's "Superstar." People read way too much cultural politics into them. Gorgeous melodicism. 9:45 AM Nov 28th from TweetDeck

Listening: Rilo Kiley "The Angels Hung Around" fr "Under the Blacklight." Jenny Lewis sings in round tones, wicked inflections, killer hooks 9:27 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Librarian by My Morning Jacket #KEXP: JK--One of those exquisite lovesongs that transports you to a different world. 7:40 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Listening to Bobb B. Soxx & Blue Jeans "Bells of St. Mary" from Spector's "A Christmas Gift For You." Thinking "Planes Trains & Automobiles" 6:22 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Bon Iver: the name, sound. They (he) are to winter what Beach Boys are to summer. Bon Iver into snowboarding? Nah. Scratch that comparison. 10:19 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

I like Lady Gaga's music. I just don't like when musicians dress up in stupid get-ups that distract from the music. Also, dancing's overdone 9:46 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Relistening to one of my 2009 fave albums: Andrew Bird's "Noble Beast." Gem-like, its beauty remains untarnished by repeated play. 9:44 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Listening to Enya, "Lazy Days," from "A Day Without Rain": her best album: her most thrilling cycle of waltzes & prayers, airs & atmospheres 9:34 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

RT @kexpplaylist: Queenie The Dog by Daniel Johnston #KEXP: JK--Second song they've played from his new album. Even better than the first. 5:45 AM Nov 23rd from TweetDeck

Was listening to NPR podcast on Johnny Mercer birth centenary. Didn't realize same lyricist did "Hooray for Hollywood" and "Moon River." 11:35 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

Doubleclick continuous gibberish stream in TweetDeck to see full/compressed Johnny Mercer lyric to "Moon River." Happy posthumous100th (+40) 6:03 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

MnRvrWdrThnMileMXngUinStylSmDy ODrmMkrUHrtBrkrWrvrUrGngmGngUrWy2DrftrsOff2CthWrld SchLotaWld2CWrFtrThSmRnbwsNdWtngRnThBndMyHklbryFrnMnRvr&Me 5:58 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

TV TWEETS

Last night's premiere of Scrubs' 9th season (or 1st season of re-premise spinoff) worked well, not jarringly different. New cast funny. 2:43 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

TIME-MARCHES-INEXORABLY-ON TWEETS

Watching family home videos from 12 years ago. Haven't watched them in years. Rarely use the VCR anymore. How much longer til can't replace? 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

Sonya couldn't believe when I showed how many photos I shot in the 70s/80s. More than 40 albums. Burden as much as blessing to watch over. 8:29 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Clear (literally) that pollution controls work. Evidence: my skyline fotos of Detroit, Chicago, NYC, & LA in 70s vs. what I've seen lately. 8:23 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Somehow, even nasty scenes of fading dilapidated Detroit neighborhoods in the 70s have twilight quality all their own. Especially in winter 7:48 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Color photos from the 70s have faded miserably. IMHO, the worst decade of all for color in photos, films, clothes, etc. Chromatic meltdown. 7:44 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Black-and-white photos always look classy. Hold their hi-contrast beauty well thru the years. Color is overrated. 7:41 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

1976. Gerald Ford campaigning in my hometown to be elected president. Have fotos of him, Wayne Rogers, Chuck Connors. None of them Livonians 7:39 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Reviewing roll-by-roll, month-by-month, album-by-album photo record I snapped btwn ages 13-25. Didn't realize then how fast time was passing 7:31 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @robcur "Sharing dupe pics widely in family improves survivability" JK--Right. I prefer not to be sole custodian. My brothers have some. 6:26 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

RT @tim_walters "We still print and store photos, but it's only the 5% we want" JK--That model only works when have family archivist. 5:39 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Seasonal affective disorder: it's contagious: even across the years: looking at photos of Michigan winters in the 70s in my hometown induces 2:52 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Digital photography has ended era of people keeping physical albums/boxes full of tangible photos. Good thing, or family history oblivion? 2:35 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

33 yrs later, "Vote for America's Official Bicentenn Slogan": Candidate 6: "Freedom's way--U.S.A." (got my vote: dumb, but at least rhymes) 10:09 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

33 yrs later, "Vote for America's Offic Bicent Slgan": Candidate 5: "Stand fast, stand tall, stand American" (as USA shorty, I take offense) 10:08 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

33 yrs later, "Vote for America's Offic Bicenten Slgn": Candidate 4: "Take pride in Amrca's past, take prt in Amer's future" (by not dying?) 10:06 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

33 yrs later, "Vote for America's Official Bicentennial Slogan": Candidate 3: "Honor the past, challenge the future" (now challenge 2042?) 10:04 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

33 yrs later, "Vote for America's Official Bicentennial Slogan": Candidate 2: "America--the possible dream" (allusion to Man of La Mancha?) 10:01 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

33 yrs later, "Vote for America's Official Bicentennial Slogan": Candidate 1: "America is your past, you are her future" (hmmm, USA a lady) 10:00 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

TV Guide ad, '76 "Vote for America's Official Bicentennial Slogan." Don't recall/care which won. "All submissions...property of Slogans USA" 9:57 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Liberating my teenage-years photo images from those horrid, bulky, reverse-inscription-concealing, tacky 70s sticky-page mass-market albums. 8:54 AM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Decade's ending, dontcha know, and Tiger Woods is tarnishing before our eyes. Sad. Been brightest/richest athletic star of past 10 years. 5:26 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Decade's ending, dontcha know, and Dubai's imploding. Feels like it was bound to happen. And it's happening. 5:21 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

People reading PA/DM into yesterday poem are correct. Janus-like, DM is history's spectacle, PA is futurity's: each lens refracts the other. 9:49 AM Nov 28th from TweetDeck

Also, re Facebook's post-from-TXT feature, annoying when 3rd stanza arrives, but 1st & 2nd don't. I post poems. 8:52 PM Nov 27th from TweetDeck

New poem "End, Decade!" (http://bit.ly/8wQLoH) 8:52 PM Nov 27th from TweetDeck

Lions lost again? They've been premier Thanksgiving turkeys for long as can remember. And their old stadium just sold for less than my house 3:53 PM Nov 26th from web

Working out really does work. I've been inhabiting this skin for 51+ years and somehow my nervous system stays better braced thru turbulence 6:27 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

OVERSHARING-FAMILY-STUFF-ON-TWITTER-BUT-KNOWING-FULL-WELL-THAT-MY-FAMILY-WILL-SEE-IMMEDIATELY-WHEN-TWEET-AUTOSYNCS-TO-MY-FACEBOOK TWEETS

Discussing quantum imaging applications with Jason Lee. Thanksgiving small talk. Really. I'm weird. Hope Sonya's not embarrassed. He's cool. 3:35 PM Nov 26th from web

Waiting for Thanksgiving: chance to meet significant somebodies my grown children seeing. I promise not to be De Niro in "Meet the Parents." 9:39 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Sonya needs to remember that geeks rule. Really. 3:37 PM Nov 26th from web

GRATUITOUSLY-SENSUAL TWEETS

Stapling is a pleasant activity. The press, crunch, click, and binding of a tidy stack of papers--brings even disorderly pulp into alignment 5:51 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Coffee is calming. If you use it to come down from long dark day indoors musing over nothing but interiors. And if you do so in coffee shop. 5:50 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

Weather was good here today. Finished all raking and disposing of dead-leafy matter. Also finished smoothing living stuff into tidy piles. 1:35 PM Dec 1st from TweetDeck

@Intelligentform "Manual selection"? That's highly pleasurable birth-control technique. ;-) 2:14 PM Nov 26th from web in reply to Intelligentform

Hey Panera Bread, thanks for following me. Clearly, you have bot listening for Twitter mentions. Do you also have free-food bot? 7:52 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Panera Bread's always a comforting coffeehouse. Kingstowne VA, Marlborough MA, Penna Turnpike--same cozy ambience. 6:26 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

HOLIDAY-MOOD TWEETS

"Defoliating a victory garden sure works up an appetite." - Firesign Theatre, from "Don't Crush That Dwarf, Hand Me the Pliers" about 10 hours ago from TweetDeck

December's almost here: the month of force-marched festivities. Oh well...any excuse for a party is a good one. 9:14 PM Nov 30th from TweetDeck

Giving thanks for tech turkeys to feast our tweets on. Name social net that you never quite got into (incl Twtr). Some will be history soon 2:35 PM Nov 26th from web

HIgh society. Why anxiety? Try variety. F*ck sobriety! 8:07 PM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

Happy Thanksgiving! My head's basted and broiled. Need some cool toddies. 3:30 PM Nov 25th from TweetDeck

GRATUITOUS-ERUDITION TWEETS

Starbucks was named for character in Moby-Dick. First outlet at Seattle Pike Place Market, overlooking Puget Sound docks. Connection? 6:56 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

ARMCHAIR-PHILOSOPHER TWEETS

Predictive power: what intuition delivers: ability to sense inevitables in yr nervous system: algorithms are dendrites fraught with futurity 9:50 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

Sitting tight is a good strategy for riding any fast-moving vehicle. Sit tight and focus. But relax your responses. Roll with the shocks. 8:35 AM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

STRAY PERSONAL TWEETS

Love when can comfort friend over phone. Neither needs to see the other's red face. Just feel the other's soothing tone. Both better for it. 9:30 PM Nov 24th from TweetDeck

STRAY POLITICAL TWEETS

NIce to see that, as his 1st anniversary in office nears, Obama is finally dealing with realistic expectations of what he can accomplish. 1:58 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

STRAY SPORTS TWEETS

Boston's the biggest hometown sports-team-crazy city I've ever seen. When in Boston, best to feign interest in Sox, Celts, Patriots, Bruins. 9:52 PM Nov 22nd from TweetDeck

STRAY SCIENCE TWEETS

"Open Source Science" (http://bit.ly/738RJI): JK--See also "More Scientists Treat Experiments as Team Sport" (http://bit.ly/7Xsl16). 6:06 AM Nov 23rd from TweetDeck

HEART-OF-DARKNESS TWEETS

"The Henry Ford of Heart Surgery" (http://bit.ly/7k4lbC): JK--Really? You can have any heart any color you wish, as long as it's black? 2:54 PM Dec 2nd from TweetDeck

poem End, Decade!

END, DECADE!

Regret is retro.
It invites regression to
the beginning. Don’t

chase the predictive
path, algorithmic dendrites
of futurity.

Suspect you've been led
to this conclusion: Time's a
twisted spectacle.

FORRESTER blog repost Instrumenting Your Enterprise for Maximum Predictive Power

Instrumenting Your Enterprise for Maximum Predictive Power

By James Kobielus

Business is all about placing bets and knowing if the odds are in your favor.

As I noted in my most recent Forrester report, business success depends on your company being able to visualize likely futures and take appropriate actions as soon as possible. You must be able to predict future scenarios well enough to prepare plans and deploy resources so that you can seize opportunities, neutralize threats, and mitigate risks.

Clearly, predictive analytics can play a pivotal role in the day-to-day operation of your business. It can help you focus strategy and continually tweak plans based on actual performance and likely future scenarios. And, as I noted in a recent Forrester blog post, the technology can sit at the core of your service-oriented architecture (SOA) strategy as you embed predictive logic deeply into data warehouses, business process management platforms, complex event processing streams, and operational applications.

The grand promise of predictive analytics—still largely unrealized in most companies—is that it will become ubiquitous, guiding all decisions, transactions, and applications. For the technology to rise to that challenge, organizations must move toward a comprehensive advanced analytics strategy that integrates data mining, content analytics, and in-database analytics. Already, we’ve sketched out a vision of “Service-Oriented Analytics,” under which you break down silos among data mining and content analytics initiatives and leverage these pooled resources across all business processes.

You may agree that this is the right vision but have doubt about whether there is a practical, incremental roadmap for taking your company in that direction. In fact there is, and it starts with re-assessing the core of most companies’ predictive analytics capability: your data mining tools. As you plan your predictive analytics initiatives, you should avoid the traditional approach of focusing on tactical, bottom-up project-specific requirements. You should also try not to shoehorn your requirements into the limited feature set of whatever modeling tool you currently happen to use.

To become a fully predictive enterprise, you will need to take both a top-down and bottom-up approach to your data mining initiatives. From the top-down, it’s all about building and integrating alternate models of how your business environment is likely to evolve internally and externally. In our recent report on advanced analytics, Boris Evelson, Leslie Owens, and I sketched out the many business processes that can be enriched by predictive analytics.

So how do you instrument your company to become more predictive? For starters, assess whether your analytics tools support the following capabilities for developing, validating, and deploying predictive models:

• Model multiple business scenarios: You should be able to build complex models of multiple, linked business scenarios across different business, process, and subject-area domains, using such key features as strategy maps, ensemble modeling , and champion-challenger modeling.
• Incorporate multiple information types into models: You should be able to develop models against multiple information types, including unstructured content and real-time event streams, while leveraging state-of-the-art algorithm in sentiment analysis and social network analysis.
• Leverage multiple statistical algorithms and approaches in models: You should be able to develop models using the widest, most sophisticated range of statistical and mathematical algorithms and approaches, including regression, constraint-based optimization, neural networks, genetic algorithms, and support vector machines.
• Apply multiple metrics of model quality and fitness: You should be able to score and validate model quality using multiple metrics and approaches, including quality scores, lift charts, goodness-of-fit charts, comparative model evaluation, and auto best-model selection.
• Employ multiple variable discovery and assessment approaches: You should be able to build and validate models using various approaches for variable discovery, profiling, and selection, including decision trees, feature selection, clustering, association rules, affinity analysis, and outlier analysis.

How is this different from predictive analytics as usual? Traditionally, most predictive modeling specialists focus on the latter three capabilities: statistical algorithms and approaches, model quality and fitness, and variable discovery and assessment. Most models are built in narrowly scoped business or subject domains—such as customer analytics for marketing campaign management—and only against structured data sources (such as relational tables). Traditionally, few predictive analytics projects have entailed modeling of multiple business scenarios across diverse domains--such as sales, marketing, customer service, manufacturing, and supply chain-- though in the real world these business processes are often quite interconnected. Also, many data mining initiatives fail to incorporate information from unstructured sources—such as text in call-center logs—though this content may be as important as what comes relational databases and other structured sources.

It’s very important to build multi-scenario predictive models against complex information sets, but becoming a fully predictive enterprise demands much more. To instrument your organization for maximum predictive power, you should also tool your advanced analytics to support the following capabilities:

• DW-integrated data preparation: To speed up and standardize the most time-consuming predictive modeling project tasks, you should be able to leverage your existing data warehouse, extract transform load, data quality, and metadata tools to support a full range of data preparation features. These features include the ability to discover, acquire, capture, profile, sample, collect, collate, aggregate, deduplicate, transform, correct, augment, and load analytical data sets.
• Deep application and middleware integration: To deliver models deeply into whatever heterogeneous SOA-enabled platform you happen to use, your predictive analytics tool should deploy on and/or integrate with a wide range of enterprise applications, middleware, operating platforms, and hardware substrate. You should be able to deploy models seamlessly into your data warehouse, business intelligence, online analytical processing, data integration, complex event processing, data quality, master data management, and business process management environments. And to play well in your SOA, your predictive modeling tools should support application programming interfaces, languages, tools, and approaches such as Web services, Java, C++, and Visual Studio, as well as emerging languages such as SQL-MapReduce and R.
• Consistent cross-domain model governance: To avoid fostering an unmanageable glut of myriad models, your predictive analytics solution should support a wide range of tools, features, and interfaces to support life-cycle governance of models created in diverse tools. At the very least, your tools should enable model check in/check-out, change tracking, version control, and collaborative development and validation of models. To realize this promise, it should support a full range of tools, standards, and interfaces for import and embedding of models from other tools, as well as export and sharing of models to other environments.
• Flexible model deployment: To execute modeling functions--such as data preparation, regression, and scoring—on the widest range of data warehouses and other platforms, your tools should support in-database or embedded analytics. And to scale to the max, your predictive analytics tools should deploy models to massively parallel data warehouses, software-as-a-service environments, and cloud computing fabrics. Your advanced analytics tools should also support development of application logic in open frameworks—such as MapReduce and Hadoop—to enable convergence of data mining and content analytics in the cloud.
• Rich interactive visualization: To deliver their precious payload—actionable intelligence—your advanced analytics tools should support interactive visualization of models, data, and results. Ideally, you should be able to visualize all of this in your preferred business intelligence tool, or in the predictive modeling vendor’s integrated visualization layer. Of course, you have every right to expect the full range of visualization techniques--histograms, box plots, heat maps, etc.—regardless of who provides the visualization layer.

As you can see, this goes well beyond data mining as usual. Forrester has a slightly different perspective on the development of the predictive analytics market than you’re likely to get from other sources. We see a robust, flexible, SOA-enabled data mining tools as the centerpiece of advanced analytics for fully predictive enterprises. The competitive stakes are too great for businesses to take the traditional silo-mired approach when implementing this mission-critical technology.

What do you think?